I wonder when he will give up. He still thinks he is in for a chance. It’s over. When will he understand that. Perhaps he would be better off playing in state politics.
I am quite amused that recent LNP statements over the past week seem to indicate they still have half a chance in a whole bunch of these Victorian seats. Kooyong is one to watch don’t get me wrong. Hamer needs to get in this time round otherwise she will be pushed out. I think she will pull some share away from Ryan, but I still think Ryan might have one more term in her before the tide turns.
Don’t the Teals want some of the Mornington seats? Plus some on the Sunny and Gold Coasts. LNP pushing Nuclear in those areas will certainly do wonders for them…not
Just an historical aside, but Earle Page was right about Bob Menzies – shame that he mutally agreed with Bob to censor that 1939 Hansard – it is one thing to refuse to go to war out of personal morals – but it is quite another thing to support the war but think that somebody else should fight it for you. See also George Bush (Snr) using his connections to stop W. being sent to the jungles of the Mekong Delta.
I don’t know if the Teal movement is going to have enough of a momentum to gain new members in 2025. 2022 was anti-Scomo, pro-climate, pro-NACC. All those factors are now out of the way, it’s hard to see anyone new getting up unless if the local MP is either so bad or the teal is popular. Though I’d imagine most if not all the current teals in parliament will keep their seats next time, which will make life harder for Dutton.
If Teals want to expand, Flinders seems like an obvious choice but there’s a LOT of retirees there which skews conservative rather than progressive. Same deal with Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast. Sturt in SA is ripe for picking with the electorate having more young people who are increasingly progressive, green, loud, you name it.
If Noosa wasn’t tied up with Wide Bay it would have some sort of potential but it’s safe Nationals. Richmond up near the QLD border is looking greener by the day but it’s Nationals territory outside Mullumbimby, Ballina and Byron which helps Labor get across the line. If Nimbin (which is in Page) was included then it would be all over red rover for the big two. Easy Greens win.
Do you think the Brisbane Metro Green seats are at risk of falling back to Labor?
I’m interested to see if they put up Terri Butler to try and remove at least one of them. It’s clear Albo wants her part of his government but need to find a way to get her a seat.
I doubt it. Once Greens get in it’s hard to dislodge them. Max Chandler-Mather is very high profile and popular in Griffith, and West End is very very Green, and the eastern side like Bulimba, Hawthorne etc are blue liberal colour.
Ryan is a Green vs LNP contest with Indooroopilly, Toowong, Auchenflower being Greens territory and rural areas west of Mt Coot-tha being LNP. Brisbane is realistically the only chance but it could be a case of another LNP vs Green. Had Labor won it last time they would’ve kept it, but now that Greens have got it it will be much harder unless Labor comes first or second and win on either Green or LNP preferences.
If the Teals contested those Brisbane seats however, I think it could be a different story. Brisbane might be a Teal city rather than a Greenslide last time round.
Labor should be targeting Leichhardt at the very least with Entsch retiring next election. The only other seat that they can target realistically is Bonner which is inner-city and neighbours Griffith and Moreton.
I think QLD Labor should get Kate Jones onboard to contest Brisbane or Griffith. Terri Butler has shown she isn’t interested in it after she was surprisingly defeated by MCM in Griffith. Kate Jones has a high profile and is relatively popular so she could realistically wrangle back one of the Greens seat and maybe be promoted into ministry.
Labor play their cards carefully they can nab that seat. To win, you just need to go up that way and listen to the people. Certainly crime and infrastructure challenges are top of mind. The issue for Labor will be the hatred towards the state government potentially flowing over to a federal vote.
I think perhaps trying for another candidate over Elida Faith who I think has run about three times now.
I wouldn’t be surprised actually. I don’t think Griffith is a solid Green seat and I think it’s quite possible it could go back to Labor. I know it doesn’t seem logical but part of the Green swing in Brisbane at the last election was anti-Scomo, similar to the Teals in southern States.
It’s quite interesting because I would’ve thought that an anti-Scomo sentiment would’ve translated to a swing to Labor and Terri Butler winning comfortably, but she came 3rd on primaries which was why it became LNP vs Green even though it was a Labor held seat for 20+ years.
I mean, if you want Scomo gone, wouldn’t you vote Labor to get them into government, instead of the Greens who at the last election didn’t really have any chances of being in the balance of power?
it was probably a 1st preference greens, second to ALP
that way you can theoretically send a message to the majors that you back the greens policies but prefer ALP over LNP. one of the big advantages of preferential voting vs First past the post
For an electorate like Griffith you’d think that if voters were voting tactically Labor would come 1st or at least 2nd in primaries behind Greens and ahead of LNP and then win on LNP preferences. But they came 3rd on primaries. If they wanted to get rid of Scomo then tactically wouldn’t it be better to get Labor’s numbers up so that’s one more seat they can get towards majority, vs getting the Greens which means Labor’s more likely held to ransom if it was a hung parliament.
I don’t know what it’s like on the ground in that electorate, but somehow I get the feeling that Max Chandler-Mather has been a lot of talk and noise, but very little action simply because, you know, he’s from the Greens and doesn’t hold any balance of power in the lower house. With someone like Terri Butler it’s likely that the electorate would’ve been better served in a Labor government. But now that the Greens are in it will be very difficult to dislodge them (same with the Independents in the teal seats).
Kevin Rudd must be spewing that his electorate was one of the losses that could’ve absolutely been prevented had Labor not taken it for granted. Apparently from what I heard Labor thought they’d cruise to victory and didn’t even bother campaigning properly until a few days prior to the election when they realised the Greens were ahead and they diverted resources from Bonner to sandbag the seat to no avail.
All the jokes aside, Jane Hume is really one of the most unlikeable politicians this parliament. She talks out of her ears and is just unhinged. Nothing redeemable about her.
Bandt and his Baldrick the member for Griffith again prove they don’t understand why naieve utopianism (“permanent ceasefire”/“our goal must always be peace”) CAN and WILL be exploited by those who have no such foolishness and lack of judgement in their heads… like the PLO and Hamas. And again, non of the protests have been peaceful
encampments and forcible occupation of buildings are intimidation and coercion – both forms of violence.
Regarding Griffith, I live in the electorate and it’s hard to read because it’s quite diverse. Lots of renters in the inner city areas, lots of rich people in Norman Park, Bulimba and Hawthorne, and lots of upper middle class aspirational voters in Morningside, Seven Hills etc. Hence the 3 way closeness of the parties at the last election.
I suspect the Greene will have trouble holding it.
This will be incredibly upsetting to a range of people, but not giving the NACC the power to impose sanctions means that they’ve got to carefully choose their path forward.
Its also a reality of these anti-corruption agencies that they can’t investigate everything - but its not a great start when what was a massive referral comes to naught.
This echos my point back in 2022 about the fact that it’s disappointing Labor did not support Helen Haines’ amendments about public hearings and other amendments going forward with the NACC. Would’ve actually made the purpose of the NACC much more meaningful and powerful in terms of stemming corruption, not to mentioning giving those who well and truly deserve their comeuppance what they deserve (I’m referring to Scomo, Stuart Robert, Alan Tudge, Christian Porter etc).
Bandt and his asinine trio of Mehreen, David and Jordon know damn well what a “permanent ceasefire” would actually mean for the ordinary Palestinian people. Oh and I saw a statement from the ANU’s pro-Palestinians now that the uni has expelled Beatrice Tucker and to me they don’t seem to care that neither the PLO or any other “armed resistance group” comprise ordinary Palestinians and that what comes following a forced Israeli withdrawal will render the worst of the Israeli far right look like a romantic boat ride.
