Federal Politics

That result tells me most people have completely stopped listening to anything the government says. They have lost total total trust in this government. If a border protection scare campaign can’t swing votes the Coalition’s one then the situation is terminal. And I applaud Australians for not falling for the fear mongering. They know a desperate government when they see one. An election can’t come soon enough.

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I wouldn’t pay too much attention to any poll to be honest. All are just pushing an agenda.

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You don’t think Newspoll reflects voting intentions and serves as a credible guide to who will or won’t be elected?

I am not saying that. It’s a poll. How accurate can a poll truely be? Especially when they are just asking for a 2 party preferred?

Last election had the most independents elected.

When has Newspoll ever got an election result wrong? They aren’t asking for 2pp, they ask for primary voting intention and then calculate the 2pp figure based on preference flows at the previous election.

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Exactly. Two party preferred isn’t accurate.

Look at the previous election results and what Newspoll predicted in the poll prior to polling day. They’re very similar.

I am saying those are not accurate not previous. It isn’t accurate simple. Labour and liberal will not win all those seats.

I believe the next election will be hung.

There will be a Labor Government elected with a 10+ seat majority. The polls have predicted that for the past several years and will not be wrong.

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I don’t believe it will happen that way. You are suggesting then that greens, nick xenaphon and May other independents won’t win a seat. Naive thinking. Anyway move on can’t be bothered discussing with someone who has no understanding on a poll that only asks for a two party.

It isn’t asking two party. It asks people if an election were hold today who would you vote for. The 2pp is calculated because we have compulsory preferential voting in federal elections and yes, it is a prediction but most of the seats in parliament are won by either the Labor or Coalition parties. So it makes sense to provide a 2pp poll.

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Not really. Considering the last election saw the most independents elected. And we don’t know which way some of those will swing. Politics are changing and those polls are becoming more and more inaccurate.

Turdall, no offence but your analysis of why polls are wrong doesn’t really stack up.

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Explain to me how it doesn’t stack up?

An opinion poll that only asks a handfull of people are reporting a 2 party prefered poll. I don’t think it could be accurate.

A nice analysis piece on the recent behaviour of the Federal Police, the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions, and how they intersect with politics:

29 posts were split to a new topic: Turdall v The Entire Legal Profession

More potential retirements

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No great losses. A clean out would be a good thing for the Liberal Party. Cash, Cormann, Fifield, Abetz, Andrews and Abbott need to go too so the party can renew and present a modern alternative in Opposition. Free of baggage from the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison ‘governments’ aka Muppet Shows.

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I certainly don’t agree with everything he says, even as a Christian however I’m sad to hear this. Condolences to his family.

Christopher Pyne confirms he is retiring from politics at the upcoming federal election.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australian-politician-christopher-pyne-announces-retirement-from-politics/news-story/cd43fdcdee52de9b9ffe9f5f61c25d00

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