Climate & Weather


#343

Yes, Penrith… a part of Sydney. i.e. it did reach 47 in Sydney.

In my opinion, minimum and maximum temperatures reported for cities, should be the lowest temperature recorded in any part of the city, and the highest temperature recorded in any part of the city… that way everyone who lives in that city is covered.


#344

I don’t see a problem with the way it’s done now, there is consistency there in that it’s always the.nominated CBD weather station, which for Sydney is Observatory Hill

And if they change it, it will be hard to compare records over the years.


#345

I don’t think anything needs to be changed in regards to individual weather stations and what they record.

I just think TV/media/BOM reports quoting temperatures for a city should just be the lowest/highest temperature recorded in that city in the day.

For example,
Last week when the heatwave struck North Queensland, one BOM weather station in Townsville peaked at 36.9°C, while the other BOM station in the city peaked at 39.5°C.

The nightly weather reports on 7/9/WIN News had Townsville recording 37°C… and that’s just not accurate. A good chunk of the population was subjected to 39.5°C.

Why not report on the nightly weather reports and news stories, etc. that Townsville hit 39.5°C? At least by doing so, the most extreme temperature recorded in the city is reported and the people who were subjected to it are covered.


#346

There is a chance that the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Joyce could dump up to 50mm of rain on Perth across Sunday & Monday. If it does, this will be the second year in a row that Perth will exceed the average summer rainfall (approx 30mm) within one rainfall event across 48 hours.

Edit: Upper estimates have now been increased to 100mm with more certainly over the track of the remnants of the cyclone. A similar system last year delivered minor flooding of some of the river systems surrounding Perth, it’ll be interesting to see how it turns out. Having this type of summer rain even 2 years in a row is unprecedented in Perth as prior to 2017, the last time we got this level of summer rain was way back in 2000.


#347

Some storms developed across central Tasmania this arvo and quickly blew eastwards and over the East Coast leaving a lot of lightning and thunder and some impressive hailstorms… oh yeah and some significant unexpected Summer dumpings of snow.

Summer in Tasmania!


#348

snow in summer?!

that’s crazy, even for Tasmania I guess…


#349

Any time of year it can happen but usually it’s forecast. I don’t recall hearing this one was forecast, just rain and possible thunderstorms.


#350

I see Perth is expected to have 100mm+ over the next few days, due to TC Joyce over Broome.

Just remember Melbourne late last year:
“a 10/10 event :open_mouth:”…

But what actually happened:
images-169
:expressionless:


#351

What’s your point? Weather forecasts are predictions.

Or is this a case of ‘I’ll take an event in another city and make it about Melbourne” :thinking:


#352

Not to mention the tracking of this particular ex-tropical cyclone is basically impossible for BOM to predict - at this stage Perth could get anywhere from 20mm to 100mm and it’s not exactly known whether it’ll be from Sunday Afternoon or Monday Morning.

Even the minimum prediction of 20mm is unusual though, and almost double the average rainfall for January.


#353

I’d rather prepare for 100mm+ and get 10 than the other way around anyday. The BoM always need to err on the upper side to ensure that people are prepared.


#354

Luke must get his weather from that ‘expert’ from Facebook lol


#355

The perennial question…


#356

Just because it didn’t rain much in the CBD or the Mornington Peninsula shouldn’t have made those warnings the subject of pathetic social media humour. Would you rather no warnings at all and it was left up to yourself to decipher what the clouds were about to deliver?

For the record, the warnings you found humorous resulted in people’s properties being flooded and damaged, some to the point of being evacuated. Hilarious stuff, until it happens to you.


#357

Spent today in the Victorian Alps, 6 degrees and wet at 5pm, expecting snow overnight


#358

Gee Bort, that’s harsh even for you.

BOM was universally panned by the public in Victoria after the event, particularly for using that term, the event also had 100mm forecast for CBD, nowhere close.

That’s all I was getting at.

Of course, forecasts are prognostics, based off instruments. It’ll never be 100% accurate.

But it shouldn’t be a mile off, which in the aforementioned, was.

Unnecessarily scared and worried people, particularly elderly.

I understand many in this thread may not have known about the basklash.

Really?

Thanks.

What do you mean?

Who said I found them humorous?


#359

The BOM can’t win.

I remember some years ago, there was a massive hailstorm in Sydney that the BOM didn’t forecast and gave no warning of. Of course, there was a massive uproar about that too ie. Why didn’t the BOM tell us?

To me, they seem to get it pretty right about 95% of the time.


#360

Side topic:

It was extremely sultry in Melbourne yesterday, until late arvo.

Due to TC Joyce connecting to an upper atmosphere through and front towards the South-East.

Also the cause of the heavy periodic rain here over the past 48 hours (this time last week it was 42, later this arvo was just 16).

I rarely complain about BOM.

I use their synoptic charting, dopplar radar, satellite imagery (zehr) and MetEye tool regualrly. I studied atmospherical science.

Honestly, it was the “10/10” that I thought crossed the line. A journo asked, but of all numbers a 10? For Melbourne?

As @Frankie alluded to, others went further making more of a mockery / mountain out of a mole hill.


#361

This is exactly right, and it’s exactly how things are in much of society. Everybody’s an expert and everybody knows how to do everybody else’s jobs better than them but honestly have no clue about what it is like.

I can appreciate that some areas of Victoria didn’t get what was forecast, but other areas got what was forecast and more. While the improvements in weather forecasting are tremendous over recent decades and even just the past few years, they still can’t be fully accurate at times and the BoM said that over and over when delivering the warnings. They said they didn’t know how it was going to play out but it looked bad and it looked unprecedented and people should be prepared for anything. In some regions this then became the case.

In the Tasmanian floods of 2016 there were many people complaining that the BoM didn’t give enough warnings about what was going to happen. They had spent days saying what was coming was unprecedented and they didn’t know how it was going to play out or where exactly but that it was shaping up to be big. Sound familiar? Similar to the warnings given in Victoria. That night people went to bed and it was just a bit of rain, overnight though many people in our area woke to either evacuations, water going through their properties or that they were now living on an island with little choices to escape if things rose. 200mm+ of rain at Sheffield came down through the Mersey River changing the path forever, causing boats and piers to be ripped apart and taken to sea. Livestock and full trees going out to sea faster than the cars driving alongside the road next to it and that was with the tide fighting against it and incoming. The warnings were not heeded by many and livestock and livelihoods were lost and the BoM was blamed for that.

Yep, if something big happens and the BoM downplayed it, guess who’s going to get massive media attention and have heads rolling if there’s an inquest or a commission. However, if the warnings are given and not heeded by the public, then it’s the public fault for not listening. I would rather have false alarms and be ready for the big one that not have warnings. People need to accept that the BoM can’t get 100% accuracy but they are experts and we should listen to them. Same with the fire weather warnings, if they and the fire authorities say the weather conditions are catastrophic then you need to listen.

It was less than 10 years ago that our forecast consisted of “Mainly Fine - 20” and that was it. There were only 6 forecasts for all of Tasmania. There are now 73 daily town and city forecasts for Tasmania, each with 3 hourly breakdowns which overall are quite accurate. Sure the temp might be off a bit or the rainfall a few mm off but they are a damn sight better than what has been in the past.


#362

Put it this way, you will never hear BOM use “10/10” ever again.