Note there’s a 30-minute lightning delay protocol in place.
AccuWeather declares >60% chance of rain between June 9 night and June 17 day.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has officially declared El Niño active and modelling tips it could become the strongest event in the modern era.
It is a state that can linger for up to 12 months and disrupt weather patterns across the globe.
Australia is especially prone to the impacts of these changes and past events have been responsible for some of our hottest and driest weather on record.
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It has been very mild here.
The forecast temp here in Newcastle for tomorrow and Thurs is 23 degrees, well above the 17.5 June average and not far short of the all time warmest June day on record of 26.1, set way back in 1958.
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El nino is not that important anymore, it mixes with many other weather systems that we can’t understand, definitely this winter is very mild, barely a frost in orange at this time but wait till spring ,I think it will be brutal.
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Right now the culprit for the tropical like warmth is a strongly positive Southern Annular Mode, which suppresses cold fronts whilst encouraging more tropical air and blocking highs. This is actually counteracting the dry influence of El Nino at the moment.
Keep an eye on this graph in the coming months:
If the index plunges below 0 (negative SAM), then the SAM will re-enforce El Nino and we could see all sorts of heat records along with extreme drought. What we don’t want is another Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in late winter or early spring which will cause a deep negative SAM like last spring.
It is really the SAM that governs the position of the subtropical ridge in the Southern Hemisphere and therefore governs most of our weather (since we sit under the ridge most of the year). That’s why the BOM’s seasonal predictions are often wrong as it’s impossible to forecast SAM well in advance (2 weeks at best).
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Earthquake upgraded to 7.5
The UK saw its hottest June day on record in Gosport, Hampshire, on Wednesday afternoon after temperatures soared to 36.1C (97F). Temperatures could hit 38C on Thursday, forecasters say.
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Nuclear reactors in Europe have had to be shut down because it is too hot for them to operate. And people wanted to build them in Australia where it regularly reaches these temperatures.
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Seems like another High Pressure system moving across southern Australia later this week. Definitely causing some havoc up the FNQ coast who are getting consistent rainfall. Very unusual for this time of year. Cairns would normally only get a couple of rain days during this Month, at this stage it seems like half of July they will get rainfall from all this moisture being pushed up from these systems.
Sucks for those who planned on a tropical break this peak and pricey season! Ouch!
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Last Wednesday as temperatures in England soared to 35 degrees, more than 12 degrees above average, the London School of Economics cancelled an event to discuss the impact of extreme heat due to the extreme heat.
Apologising for the cancellation, the LSE explained that the venue it planned to hold the event in, known simply as the Old Building, did not have cooling mechanisms in place “like most buildings in London” and it would be unsafe to host a public gathering within its solid stone walls.
Richard Black, the Berlin-based climate analyst and author of the book Denied: The Rise and Fall of Climate Contrarianism, says it’s clear why some leaders would rather engage in a culture war over cooling infrastructure in the face of such an enormous long-predicted catastrophe. “It’s definitely better for the fossil fuel industry, and it’s also better for politicians and think tanks, aka lobby groups, who oppose the clean energy transition. Because we’re not then talking about the energy transition, we’re talking about air-conditioners.”
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Don’t really get why there’s not more R.C air con in Europe ,it’s always better to shift heat in or out rather than create heat and you can’t really make coolth you just remove heat.
Generally they haven’t needed to cool down their properties, just heat them in winter. It’s getting hotter now and they just haven’t needed to deal with that in the past.
You could say the same thing about Australia and how we don’t seem to heat our homes as well as the Europeans do.
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Yes , the insulation standards in Australia are woeful compared to Europe or North America.
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Extreme heat conference cancelled due to extreme heat
Isn’t it ironic? Don’t you think? 
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The LSE regularly have climate change lectures; I subscribe to their public lectures on YouTube.
Although the comments on the lack of A/C in Western Europe (particularly the UK) are accurate, it’s still surprising that a moneyed institution like the LSE is still without.
Isn’t it just that they’ve never really needed it until recently?
Similar to Australian homes not using central heating with radiators in the same way all European homes do.
People in the UK used to think anything above 23° was a heatwave, and now they say a heatwave is above 25°
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Well considering the Bureau of Meteorology hasn’t put any information out on this system. I shall do it.
Regions Affected: Sunshine Coast, SE QLD Coast, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Central Coast, Hunter, Sydney
Brief: A High-Pressue system is moving over VIC & TAS which is bringing clear weather to the regions, whilst coastal areas of Queensland & New South Wales will experience wind & rain.
Sydney is forecasted to see rainfall Thursday Afternoon & Evening.
Brisbane will likely be seeing rainfall at the end of the week.
The most rainfall will be in the Northern Rivers region. With 150mm expected in the region.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued Marine Wind Warnings across the coast.
Picture Below: Rainfall Over 4-Day Period
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