Climate, Weather and Emergencies

Snow in summer, in Australia? I never thought or realised that this might ever occur, but a Google search suggests it does happen occasionally in Oz.

Even Melbourne is about to get hit with a cold blast which is somewhat unusual for Feb. Mid teens this weekend and nothing really over 22 next week.

Then it appears we might be entering a nice long period of mid 20s for the remainder of Feb which is just perfect down here. Sydney also looks like it might get similar stable conditions.

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Happens quite often in Tassie. The first time I realised this was watching the last episode of the first season of ‘The Mole’, where they got snowed on ascending Mount Wellington in the middle of summer.

More recently, NZ up as far as Hawkes Bay got snow in January this year. The Southern Ocean stays cold year round, particularly south of 40 degrees latitude. That preserves snow and cold much better in summer- you don’t see snow to relatively low latitudes and altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in summer due to the amount of land towards the poles.

Conversely, winter cold is muted relative to latitude in the Southern Hemisphere as the ocean doesn’t cool down as much as the land. We’ll never see snow in Coffs Harbour as in New Orleans.

It’s happened before. Feb 2005 being a classic example. Feb 1993 also had some cold days.

But it’s super-dry here at present. No proper rain since the start of December. Cooked.

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That wouldn’t also be when Melbourne had that major flooding event would it? Not sure what if any records, but would surely still be one of the worst this century. From memory the media coverage was quite large too. Freeways flooded, suburbs under water, torrents flowing down streets and the CBD…

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia is now a Category 5 system off the WA Pilbara coast. It’s expected to make landfall sometime tomorrow somewhere between Karratha and Port Hedland.

BOM currently indicating it could have wind gusts of 320 km/h close to the centre of the cyclone.

Various weather observers say it could become one of the strongest cyclone systems to impact the Australian coastline in recent times.

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Yeah, a very powerful beast of a cyclone. It could have a significant impact on Port Hedland tomorrow. Up there with TC Olivia (1996), Orson (1989) and Isla (2023).

Finally some relief from the humidity in the Sydney area and surrounds.

Looking forward to some cooler days and nights for the next 4 or 5 days. Though i know summer isn’t over yet.

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Almost winter like weather today…

Sunny, but only 21 degrees with a dew point of just 9!

Most unusual in the Newcastle/Sydney area at what is normally the hottest month of the year.

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Temperature range in Bungendore today was 3-18. That’s more like a late April/early May day for here and I guess similar for Newcastle. I did feel the cold this morning as we had quite muggy conditions only a few days ago with severe storms. Another cold morning on the way tomorrow.

Nice weather for the rest of the week as well- warm days, cool nights and no severe storms. I’m sure summer will be back soon as it usually hangs around until the last week of March. Here’s hoping the lengthy/high end heat is behind us for another season though.

Yeah, supposed to be back to low 30s by Sunday here, but at least nights are staying below 20 which is a good thing. I usually find summer starts to fade from about mid March.

Famous last words- those SSTs off NSW are red hot as is usual these days:

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC052.NSW.SSTAnalysis.shtml

With SSTs generally around or above 25C, muggy nights are almost a given on the coastal plain unless there’s a significant cold change from the south like now. Once winds turn back to the NE, you’ll get the humid soup.

Thankfully minima aren’t as dependent on SSTs in Bungendore, though can still be relatively muggy whenever there’s a decent easterly flow. A warm night for us though is in the mid-high teens which is still very decent for sleeping.

Andrew Johnson is stepping down early as BoM director. He’s had quite the turbulent time of late. Finishes in September. Estimates Monday. https://t.co/FBHmRbBk7J

— Rick Morton (@SquigglyRick) February 20, 2025

Statement: Bureau of Meteorology CEO and Director of Meteorology

The CEO of the Bureau of Meteorology and Director of Meteorology, Dr Andrew Johnson PSM, has advised me of his intention to conclude his term in early September 2025, after nine years at the helm.

During Dr Johnson’s tenure, the Bureau has delivered new and upgraded fire, flood, bushfire, heatwave, cyclone, marine, climate and space weather services; expanded the fleet of weather radars, automatic weather stations and flood warning infrastructure; and made the Bureau’s technology capabilities secure, stable and resilient. The BoM Weather app is now used by over 15 million people. These are all significant achievements.

Australians should be proud that the Bureau is considered one of the world’s most respected meteorological agencies. This is a credit to Dr Johnson and his hardworking team.

Under Dr Johnson’s leadership, when our nation has most needed the Bureau, it has delivered trusted and reliable services during successive fire, flood and cyclone emergencies, many of which occurred during COVID-19 pandemic. It has also continued to play a strong role in our region, especially helping build the capacity of Pacific Islands nations to prepare for and respond to the impacts of severe weather in a changing climate.

On behalf of the Federal Government, I sincerely thank Dr Johnson for his many years of dedicated service to the Bureau, and the Australian community. I wish him all the very best in his future endeavours.

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A tropical low off the Queensland coast has a high chance of becoming a cyclone as early as Sunday, with strong wind warnings in place for most of the state’s coastline.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonathan How said the system had developed about 600 kilometres north-east of Cairns.

“It is well off the Queensland coast at the moment, but it is gradually developing and strengthening,” he said.

“Some computer-modelled guidance does have that system drifting as far south as the Wide Bay area, remaining offshore for the time being,” he said.

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The paper, published in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes, examined the differences between Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) weather station readings and the recordings of custom technology placed at 274 sites across Greater Western Sydney.

According to the results, the number of days reporting extreme heat, or temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius, was more frequent than what the bureau had reported, with discrepancies of up to 25 days.

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The Professor in the article raises a point I’ve whinged about before too, that there are too few official weather stations across the country.

The Gold Coast for instance (a city 70km long top to bottom) has only two weather stations - the airport at Coolangatta and the Seaway. Both are on the coast. So if you’re somewhere more inland like Nerang or Pimpama, or anywhere more than a few hundred metres from the beach really, the official temp telling you it’s only 28 degrees is completely wrong, it’s usually much hotter.

There really should be more weather stations where people are.

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Unfortunately there are now less weather stations than there used to be because of the closure of manual reporting sites. All due to the usual budget cutbacks that afflict every government body.

For the inland Gold Coast there is one station: Canungra (Defence). Its minimum temperatures are impressive for a station that far north as it’s in a deep valley. Beaudesert would also be useful for some parts.

Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) tend to be sited in areas with open space so as not to bias readings. This generally means airports and parklands; airports obviously also have a strong use case as they need reliable weather data on site. The lack of available real estate is a big issue in cities.

Thankfully Defence has installed a few weather stations around their airfields and military reserves, like the aforementioned Canungra one. There are also plenty of AWS up in the Pilbara at the mine site airfields.

Quite a few of the suburban AWS in Sydney were set up ahead of the 2000 Olympics such as Horsley Park and Canterbury. Some events such as the equestrian (Horsley Park), shooting (Cecil Hills, Badgerys Creek) and rowing (Penrith AWS) needed weather data. Not forgetting Sydney Olympic Park AWS itself too.

Private weather stations such as those on Wunderground can help fill the gap, but most are poorly sited with too much radiant heat from buildings affecting the readings. This is why you need open space for accurate data.

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Cyclone Alfred

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BOM records huge rainfall totals

The rain event saw huge falls across parts of North Queensland.

Climate hydrology specialist Caitlin Minney from the Bureau of Meteorology said an active monsoon trough, and several tropical lows, produced the heavy rain between January 27 and February 12.

“The highest rainfall totals were reported at Paluma, in the Burdekin River catchment about 40 kilometres south of Ingham,” she said

The Paluma Ivy Cottage station recorded 2,662 millimetres of rainfall between February 1-12.

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Tropical Cyclone Alfred is nearest to the Queensland coast, with Tropical Cyclone Seru hovering over Vanuatu, and Tropical Cyclone Rae to the south-east of Fiji.

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