Climate, Weather and Emergencies

I think we are going to experience some volatile conditions over the next 6 months. Heat obviously the driving force. Some states got in quick for aerial fire support, signed contacts early. Apparently Vic didn’t and got the scraps.

Melbourne is in for a shock next week. Polar blast today. 26/27 for the back half of next week. I nearly fell over. Pity most of us will be at work.


Penrith predicted to hit 34 degrees next weekend.

That’s VERY warm so early in spring, and not a good sign for summer.

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Are we ready for a hot hot summer?

Probably not. We tend to just do nothing until the season arrives. One major criticism from me is the lack of pre readiness for what is likely to be a very hot few months.


What are we supposed to do?

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Better planning and prevention. The issue is the states and the scientists are not two and two. It’s a dysfunctional relationship.

I would like to see considerable investment in the scientific tools and data, they are most certainly available. These tools can help detect and map out many scenarios.

It’s also no trade secret that there is poor coordination between the state governments and local fire services.

Equipment is another. Technology we are well underinvested. Drones are one technology piece that we barely use.

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Does 34 deg in September mean we won’t see March and April also dragging on with late season heat in Australia like what happened on the east coast this year ? Or will it be 7 months of summer?

I’m guessing Feb and March will be more normal and April for temperatures next year but way too far out to tell.

I did see Richmond forecast for 35 deg but the night temp is still 13 deg.

Here we had our first taste in Yeppoon of uncomfortable humidity dew point was 21 deg for 2 days . Found it uncomfortable for sleeping Temp wasn’t that high though but dew points like that are usually here in November not September . Only 3 weeks ago we had 8 deg in the morning lol.

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BOM still have not declared El Niño. Other International agencies have.

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⚠️BREAKING ⚠️@BOM_au press conference called at 3pm

Will an El Nino event be declared?

Coupling of atmosphere & ocean starting to take shape in the Pacific.

Full Positive IOD characteristics present in Indian Ocean.

Full coverage from 5pm on @10NewsFirstSyd @10NewsFirstQLD

— Josh Holt (@JoshHoltTEN) September 19, 2023
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The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are underway. Warmer and drier conditions have already been forecast for spring and summer for parts of Australia. Details:


The NSW Far South Coast region hit a Catastrophic fire danger rating today. Several bushfire warnings have been issued across the day throughout the state. A number of fire bans were issued, which will continue tomorrow including across the Greater Sydney region.

In addition, there is currently an Emergency Bushfire warning for Coles Bay along the east coast of Tasmania. Predicted winds of up to 125km/h have prompted a number of evacuations in that area, due to erratic bushfire behaviour.

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