2021 Ratings Predictions

Sunday October 10, 2021 - the battle of Dumb vs Dumber.

Hey Hey It’s 50 Years: 800k.
The Block: 1.1million.

Meanwhile, Ten’s Season 2 premiere of the (slightly…although I really don’t care for any of these primetime shows) more intelligent Celebrity MasterChef will probably only get around 500k-600k.

We get it. You need to be educated when watching TV. ABC is also showing a renovation program in prime time tonight. They all do it. TV is meant to be fun. Chill. Relax. Have a beer and join The Block crowd for mind numbing television!

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Or the Hey Hey crowd for some cringeworthy TV :sweat_smile:

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Monday October 11
The Block 0.86m
Love Island Australia season premiere 0.71m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.58m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.63m

SAS Australia 0.61m
Movie: Deadpool 2 Rpt 0.28m


Tuesday October 12
SAS Australia 0.65m
Inside Chernobyl Rpt 0.29m

The Block 0.85m
Love Island Australia 0.28m

The Dog House Australia series premiere 0.46m
The Cheap Seats 0.29m
FIFA World Cup Qualifier: Japan v Australia (10 Bold) 0.17m


Wednesday October 13
The Block 0.84m
Love Island Australia 0.26m

SAS Australia: Debrief (season finale) 0.51m
America’s Got Talent season premiere 0.35m

The Graham Norton Show 0.29m
Bull season premiere 0.22m

Might be higher ratings for Sydney TV news bulletins than there were last night, as storms often bring the viewers in…

Thursday October 14
Paramedics season finale 0.52m
Love Island Australia 0.27m
Love Island Australia: Afterparty series premiere 0.16m

Home and Away triple episodes 0.55m / 0.49m
America’s Got Talent 0.26m

Ambulance Australia Rpt 0.31m
Gogglebox 0.61m

Sunday October 17
Seven News Spotlight: Melissa Caddick: The Vanishing 0.65m
Movie: Ford vs Ferrari premiere 0.33m

The Block 0.97m
60 Minutes 0.61m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.59m
CSI: Vegas 0.28m


Monday October 18
SAS Australia: Hell Week premiere 0.56m
Movie: Anna premiere 0.27m

The Block 0.94m
Love Island Australia 0.29m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.57m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.63m


Tuesday October 19
The Block 0.94m
Love Island Australia 0.26m

SAS Australia: Hell Week 0.35m
Unbelievable Moments Caught on Camera 0.28m

The Dog House Australia 0.45m
The Cheap Seats 0.33m


Wednesday October 20
The Block 0.91m
Love Island Australia 0.28m

The Bachelorette Australia season premiere 0.63m
Bull new 0.27m

Highway Patrol Rpt 0.35m
America’s Got Talent 0.22m


Thursday October 21
RBT 0.51m
Paramedics 0.43m
Love Island Australia 0.25m

The Bachelorette Australia 0.37m
Gogglebox 0.64m
The Cheap Seats encore 0.24m

Home and Away triple episodes 0.55m / 0.52m
America’s Got Talent 0.22m

Saturday 23 October:

Ten News: 255k
Making It: 189k
Ten’s Football (Matilda’s v Brazil): Pre-game: 300k
Ten’s Football (Matilda’s v Brazil): Match: 400k

Harry Potter (Seven): 300k
Mamma Mia (Nine): 350k

Sunday October 24
The Block 1.02m
60 Minutes 0.61m

7News Spotlight: Life and Death 0.55m
Border Security 0.36m
Grace series premiere 0.31m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.57m
CSI: Vegas 0.29m


Monday October 25
The Block 0.97m
Love Island Australia 0.28m

SAS Australia: Hell Week 0.38m
Movie: Cold Pursuit 0.25m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.57m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.66m


Tuesday October 26
The Block 0.94m
Love Island Australia 0.27m

The Dog House Australia 0.53m
The Cheap Seats 0.36m
Women’s football friendly: Australia v Brazil game 2 0.14m (10 Bold)

SAS Australia: Hell Week finale 0.39m
Unbelievable Moments Caught on Camera 0.27m


Wednesday October 27
The Block 0.92m
Love Island Australia 0.25m

The Bachelorette Australia 0.37m
Bull new 0.21m

Highway Patrol 0.36m
America’s Got Talent 0.21m


Thursday October 28
The Bachelorette Australia 0.31m
Gogglebox 0.55m

Home and Away triple episodes 0.56m / 0.52m
America’s Got Talent 0.21m

RBT 0.46m
Paramedics Rpt 0.35m
Love Island Australia 0.17m

I’m predicting that the end of lockdowns due to COVID and the switch to living with COVID will significantly impact ratings, especially the overnights.

The COVID pandemic caused significant difficulties for the production and delivery of all types of television, including the format of many shows.

However, for almost 2 years a combination of factors (varying in each market) has conspired to give an environment where viewers were stuck at home, sometime all day, watching television.

That included restrictions on holidays, leisure and exercise activities plus reduced or no crowds at sporting or cultural events.

This saw ratings for news programming at levels not seen for 7-8 years while breakfast, morning and afternoon TV was up significantly on the usual audience *. Prime time audiences for several shows also improved especially in younger demographics.

This effect should now be nearing its end. So I am expecting some big shifts in viewing patterns. Perhaps not totally back to pre-COVID if perhaps more people are working from home. And not to the same extend in each markets.

Anything with a news component is likely to be impacted with Sydney and Melbourne numbers the most.

So, for example, Seven News Sydney got some wins in this year that could have been interpreted as stay-at-homes choosing that bulletin over Nine’s (Nine’s numbers did not go down). So will Nine go back to dominating the news market? Or perhaps, Sydney viewers of breakfast TV will shift back to their traditional home with Today as workers and children return to work and school respectively.

I’m expecting morning TV numbers to drop as their programming shifts away from delivering CIVD updates while both morning and afternoon viewing will be down with fewer people at home.

In primetime, I’m expecting a smaller numbers of the already diminishing pool of younger viewers to be watching FTA live.

How will the networks react? If at all. We have seen upfronts for the commercial networks and not a lot of inspired thinking there. Their best response so far is to count more ways that viewers are watching their favourite program but so far we don’t have anything to compare this new data to.

* Worth noting that even in that environment we saw 10, and regional networks cut back on news production. What will happen when there are fewer watching?

6 Likes

Yeah, I completely agree that once Australia starts to open up again, we’ll see the ratings fall back down to 2019 levels…or perhaps even lower.

Not to mention the near-complete and irreversible decimation of children’s television on commercial TV, as almost all locally produced kids shows from Seven, Nine and Ten (well…shown on their multichannels in more recent years) were axed during the pandemic.

Probably more cheap to produce reality programs being commissioned (or revived/poached) by the commercial networks.

The Australian content quotas will probably be watered down even further. Certainly I’m expecting a future where scripted programming on the big three almost exclusively consists of content from a couple of years ago that was originally commissioned for streaming services.

Sunday October 31
The Block 1.05m
Bert Newton: Let Me Entertain You tribute special 0.74m
60 Minutes 0.36m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.55m
CSI: Vegas 0.22m

7News Spotlight: Bubba Chump premiere 0.48m
Border Security 0.36m
Movie: Bad Boys for Life premiere 0.25m
Grace season finale (7TWO) 80,000


Monday November 1
Parental Guidance series premiere 0.63m
Love Island Australia 0.22m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.54m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.66m
2021 Melbourne Cup preview show 0.23m

Big Brother VIP series premiere 0.71m
Movie: The Meg Rpt 0.25m


Tuesday November 2
2021 Melbourne Cup: early 0.25m
2021 Melbourne Cup: mounting yard 0.74m
2021 Melbourne Cup: race 1.43m
2021 Melbourne Cup: post-race presentation 0.86m
2021 Melbourne Cup: late 0.26m
The Dog House Australia 0.49m
The Cheap Seats 0.31m
Movie: Ride Like a Girl premiere 0.18m

Big Brother VIP 0.37m
Conjoined Twins premiere special 0.21m

Parental Guidance 0.57m
Love Island Australia 0.18m


Wednesday November 3
The Bachelorette 0.38m
Lie With Me series premiere 0.24m

Parental Guidance 0.56m
Finding Cleo: A Nine News special 0.34m
Love Island Australia 0.17m

Big Brother VIP 0.37m
The Latest: Seven News 0.27m
America’s Got Talent 0.18m


Thursday November 4
The Bachelorette 0.35m
Gogglebox 0.57m

RBT 0.48m
Paramedics Rpt 0.36m

Home and Away 0.54m / 0.49m
America’s Got Talent 0.22m

7 November 2021
The block grand finale will be slightly down from last year but Nine will still win easily
The block Grand Finale - 1.398m
The block Winner Announced - 1.713m
Big brother VIP - 376k
Celebrity masterchef Australia - 566k

Sunday November 7
The Block finale 1.37m
The Block winner announced 1.75m
60 Minutes 0.62m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.48m
CSI: Vegas 0.22m

7News Spotlight: Ultimate ABBA 0.46m
Border Security 0.32m
Movie: White House Down Rpt 0.24m


Monday November 8
Parental Guidance 0.57m
Love Island Australia 0.24m

Big Brother VIP 0.38m
9-1-1 season premiere 0.26m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.46m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.62m


Tuesday November 9
Big Brother VIP 0.37m
The Curse of the Chippendales series premiere 0.25m / 0.22m

Parental Guidance 0.56m
Travel Guides Rpt 0.36m
Love Island Australia 0.19m

The Dog House Australia 0.52m
The Cheap Seats 0.38m


Wednesday November 10
Big Brother 0.34m
America’s Got Talent: Quarter Final 1 performance and results 0.23m

Parental Guidance 0.55m
Emergency 0.37m
Love Island Australia 0.19m

The Bachelorette 0.34m
Gogglebox season finale 0.56m
Lie With Me 0.14m


Thursday November 11
FIFA World Cup Asian Qualifier: Australia v Saudi Arabia 0.46m (10 + 10 Bold Perth)

Home and Away triple episodes 0.54m / 0.49m
America’s Got Talent: Quarter Final 2 performance and results 0.21m

RBT 0.46m
Paramedics Rpt 0.35m
Love Island Australia 0.18m

Sunday November 14
Parental Guidance 0.61m
60 Minutes 0.47m
American Tragedy - The Gabby Petito Story premiere special 0.32m

7News Spotlight - Sex, Lies and Audiotape (Prince Andrew) premiere 0.43m
Granny Killer: The Unsolved Murders premiere special 0.29m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia 0.52m
CSI: Vegas 0.21m


Monday November 15
Parental Guidance 0.53m
Love Island Australia 0.20m

Celebrity MasterChef Australia semi-final 0.57m
Have You Been Paying Attention? season finale 0.63m

Big Brother VIP 0.33m
9-1-1 0.29m / 0.26m


Tuesday November 16
Parental Guidance season finale 0.49m
Travel Guides Rpt 0.39m
Love Island Australia 0.22m

Big Brother VIP 0.33m
The Curse of the Chippendales 0.22m / 0.21m

The Dog House Australia 0.59m
The Cheap Seats 0.38m


Wednesday November 17
The Bachelorette 0.32m
Bull new 0.24m

Big Brother VIP 0.31m
America’s Got Talent 0.23m

Adele - Live in London Rpt 0.35m
Emergency Rpt 0.33m


Sunday November 21
Adele - One Night Only premiere special 0.57m
7News Spotlight: Inside the Minds of Killers premiere 0.32m

Lego Masters Bricksmas special premiere 0.61m
60 Minutes 0.49m

The Graham Norton Show 0.25m
CSI: Vegas 0.18m


Monday November 22
Celebrity MasterChef Australia grand final 0.61m
Celebrity MasterChef Australia winner announced 0.68m

Big Brother VIP 0.31m
9-1-1 0.28m / 0.25m

RBT 0.45m
Australian Crime Stories Rpt 0.35m
Love Island Australia 0.18m


Tuesday November 23
Big Brother VIP grand final 0.41m
Movie: Wonder Woman Rpt 0.23m

Travel Guides Rpt 0.44m
The Hundred with Andy Lee: Xmas special premiere 0.39m
Love Island Australia 0.18m

The Dog House Australia 0.55m
The Cheap Seats season finale 0.40m


Wednesday November 24
Home and Away triple episodes 0.54m / 0.46m
Code 1: Minute by Minute series premiere 0.35m
America’s Got Talent semi-final 0.18m
WBBL finals: The Eliminator: Heat v Strikers 0.14m (7mate)

Mega Zoo (series premiere for Sydney and Brisbane) 0.42m
Emergency Rpt 0.36m
Love Island Australia season finale 0.22m

The Bachelorette 0.34m
Bull 0.23m
Lie With Me season finale 0.16m


Thursday November 25
Home and Away season finale 0.53m / 0.48m
The Front Bar Ashes Edition part 1 0.36m
America’s Got Talent grand final performance 0.12m
WBBL finals: The Challenger: Renegades v Strikers 0.12m (7mate)

Hot Seat primetime special 0.41m
Mini-series: Quiz premiere 0.32m

The Bachelorette finale 0.36m
The Cheap Seats season finale encore 0.24m


Sunday November 28
Lego Masters Bricksmas Special part 2 0.74m
60 Minutes 0.46m

Border Security 0.34m
Homicide: with Ron Iddles Rpt 0.31m
Movie: Kingsman: The Secret Service Rpt 0.24m

The Graham Norton Show 0.29m
CSI: Vegas 0.22m


Monday November 29
Snackmasters series premiere 0.63m
Movie: The Dish Rpt 0.34m

Motorway Patrol season premiere 0.46m / 0.42m
9-1-1 0.23m / 0.18m

NCIS: Hawai’i series premiere (preview) 0.32m
Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol series premiere (preview) 0.24m

Sunday December 5
Repco Bathurst 1000: race 0.84m
Repco Bathurst 1000: podium 0.91m
BBL: Sixers v Stars session 1: 0.43m, session 2: 0.53m

60 Minutes Summer 0.51m
David Attenborough’s A Perfect Planet Rpt 0.38m
Movie: The Equalizer Rpt 0.25m

The Graham Norton Show 0.28m
CSI: Vegas 0.19m


Monday December 6
BBL: Thunder v Heat session 1: 0.51m, session 2: 0.49m

Snackmasters 0.48m
Spice Girls: How Girl Power Changed the World series premiere 0.25m

Bondi Rescue season return 0.37m
Territory Cops season return 0.34m
FBI: Most Wanted Rpt 0.24m
FBI: Most Wanted new 0.18m


Tuesday December 7
BBL: Renegades v Strikers 0.35m

Snackmasters finale 0.42m
Spice Girls: How Girl Power Changed the World finale 0.22m

The Dog House Australia 0.48m
NCIS season premiere 0.24m
NCIS: Los Angeles 0.16m

Well how much of this was true?

Maybe I should reflect on my predictions…

True.

Mostly true - Seven now uses the tagline “Queensland’s Number 1”.

Well…

Seven News Sydney did put up a bit of a fight but Nine still won.

A bit too much of an ambitious guess here. Sunrise still won, although Today has had some notable wins too.

Between News Breakfast and Today, that is. Melbourne did not tune into Sunrise as much.

Sunrise did have Sydney viewers tuning in but soon lost them…

True.

With all that said, the majority of my predictions haven’t seemed too far off the mark.

Wednesday December 8
2021 AACTA Awards 0.28m

1st Ashes test: Australia v England session 1: 0.45m, session 2: 0.53m
BBL: Hurricanes v Stars 0.36m
BBL: Scorchers v Heat 0.28m

Mega Zoo 0.41m
Emergency Rpt 0.35m
A+E After Dark season premiere 0.22m

Thursday December 23
Woolworths Carols in the Domain premiere 0.46m
Movie: Vacation Rpt 0.22m

Great Getaways 0.35m
Movie: Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous Rpt 0.24m

Jamie: Together at Christmas 0.26m
Law & Order: SVU new 0.19m


Sunday December 26
3rd Ashes test: Australia v England
session 1: 0.61m, session 2: 0.64m, session 3: 0.73m
BBL: Thunder v Stars 0.41m
BBL: Scorchers v Renegades 0.25m

60 Minutes Summer 0.47m
David Attenborough’s A Perfect Planet Rpt 0.31m
Movie: The Matrix Rpt 0.23m

A-League: Melbourne Victory v Western United 90,000


Monday December 27
3rd Ashes test: Australia v England
session 1: 0.78m, session 2: 0.83m, session 3: 0.91m
BBL: Hurricanes v Strikers 0.47m
BBL: Heat v Stars 0.36m

RBT 0.41m
Australian Crime Stories Rpt 0.34m
Reported Missing Rpt 0.28m

Bondi Rescue Rpt 0.31m
Territory Cops Rpt 0.28m
FBI: Most Wanted 0.22m


Tuesday December 28
3rd Ashes test: Australia v England
session 1: 0.63m
BBL: Thunder v Perth 0.44m

Travel Guides Rpt 0.42m
The Weakest Link: celebrity special premiere 0.35m

The Dog House Australia Rpt 0.31m
NCIS new 0.25m

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