2019 will be a scintillating year for sport.
AFL Grand Final will stay Number 1 program for 6 consecutive years of the year.
NRL Grand Final will do well and will win in demographics.
The State of Origin game will do extremely well, although the ratings will dip by an extremely slim margin due to the 9Now streams. State of Origin Game 2 will do even better in Perth.
Bledisloe Cup will drop a bit due to many people having Foxtel and a few having Tenplay. The First game in Perth will do OK, but when its played in Wellington (IIRC) for the 2nd game, it will dip further due to NZ dominance and due to timezones.
Melbourne Cup race will drop viewers slightly in 2019 after Seven ended broadcast in 2018. Racing.com will still televise the Melbourne Cup, which was still part of SWM.
The Ashes in England will rate higher on its secondary channel and on the primary channel if Nine decides to do so. The Cricket World Cup in England (with only Australian games) will do well on GEM and will push Nine’s shares higher.
Bathurst 1000 will rise by a fraction, despite some people having Foxtel for some coverage.
Rugby World Cup - Who will pick up the rights to televise?
Meanwhile in other programs…
I’m a Celebrity will struggle a bit without the Big bash on Ten.
Channel Nine will have a good start to a ratings year since 2004 with Australian Open, Married at First Sight (although will dip a bit). Married at First Sight will be Number 1 non-sports program for 2019. Meanwhile MKR will drop further in ratings - people are getting bored of the bitchiness of the contestants.
After easter, The Voice will crash even further down and will be demolished by Masterchef in ratings. This will be the last year of the Voice Australia. I’d say that Masterchef will be Number 1 in its 7:30pm timeslot (bar State of Origin!)
Have You Been Paying Attention and Gogglebox will do reasonably well in its 8:30PM timeslot but will see a minute decline at the end of the year. Ambulance will see ratings go up a bit.
With the relocation of production of Ninja Warrior from Sydney to Melbourne, the ratings will drop dramatically. People are getting tired of Rebecca Maddern and Ben Fordham’s commentary. Will it be the last year of Ninja Warrior for 2019?
Australian Survivor will rate slighly higher in 2019 with a strong cast. But will be hit hard with The Block that will continue to dominate in 3rd quarter of 2019, although will experience a decline in ratings.
Dancing with the Stars will start well but will see ratings dwindle every week due to people having some negative reactions to this revival show on a new channel, TEN. It will fail on TEN and will be bumped to 10Peach.
Pilot week, Hughesy we have a problem, Show Me the Movie will not do too bad, despite having a different cast.
Seven will be hit hard with a strong lineup on Nine at the start of 2019, but will just prevail in its ratings year in terms of primetime shares. (this is vice versa Back in 2005, with Nine being hit with Seven’s strong performance, though Nine finished strongly in ratings year.) Despite of 7’s dominance in Perth for years, Channel 9 will see improvement even further thanks to Origin at Optus Stadium and the cricket during mid-year!
2019 will be the year 7 loses the ratings in a close one
Sports
AFL Grand Final will be the overall number one program (again!)
NRL Grand Final will be Nine’s no.1 program
9Gem will rate well during winter with the Ashes and NRL in AFL states sometimes outrating 10.
Australian Open will kick start Channel 9’s year thanks to exclusive streaming on 9Now
State of Origin will rate well in Perth given Game 2 is at Optus Stadium
The Melbourne Cup returns to 10 with live and exclusive streaming on TenPlay but ratings will drop off thanks to Racing still showing the Carnival and other races
NFL to go back to 10 with 10 Peach showing matches, Super Bowl on 10/10HD
News and Current Affairs and Breakfast
ABC News will be #1 during the federal election with Australia Votes 2019 the most-watch television news event of the year on ABC and ABC News. QandA, 4 Corners, Media Watch and Australian Story dominates Monday nights during the campaign.
Nine News Perth will rate well in January thanks to the Australian Open and Skyworks but will drop off when ratings proper start but Nine only win in Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Seven News Perth will once again win the ratings despite the loss of Skyworks and tennis to rival station 9. It will be Peter Hitchener’s final year at GTV with his last bulletin on 29 November 2019. Tony Jones will take over as permanent weekday presenter for Nine News Melbourne.
10 News First will be 10 News Fourth but The Project will continue to rate well
Today Show will flop badly, easily beaten by Sunrise and even News Breakfast with rumours of the show being axed or format changed. 10 will try and launch a breakfast show “10 This Morning” in the 2nd half of the year as Today’s viewers switch to News Breakfast but plans are dumped before it even airs
The Morning Show will continue to dominate the 9-11.30am timeslot
General entertainment
10 - I’m a Celebrity will struggle against the Tennis and Big Bash. Dancing with the Stars will flop with the show bumped to 10 Peach. Pointless will be axed, replaced with a Deal or No Deal/Wheel of Fortune reboot after poor ratings. Bachleor/Bachelorette/ Masterchef/HYBA will all be solid ratings. Trial by Kyle will be the most complained about show of the year but Hughesy, We Have a Problem and Show Me the Movie will be well recieved. Australian Survior will be the biggest imrpver.
7 - The last season of MKR with the show suffering another decline in ratings, well done on last year, same can be said about House Rules. Australia’s Got Talent to flop, show axed after 4 weeks. New shows Super Switch and The Proposal will be panned by viewers.
9 - MAFS and The Block continue to deliver excellent ratings with the former being the most watch non-sports show for 2019. The same cnanot be said about The Voice with 2019 likely to be the last season. Ninja Warrior will drop dramatically with shift of production from Sydney to Melbourne
I still think it’ll be either the 1st or 2nd State Of Origin match, unless the NRL Grand Final is a real blockbuster (ie, all Sydney or a “NSW v QLD” battle).
Just our of interest, how do you expect Nine News to become #1 in Adelaide?
When Hitch retires (whether at the end of 2019 or a little later), I still think either Brett McLeod or Alicia Loxley will most likely get the position with Tony Jones remaining on Sport. But that’s for another topic.
Let’s be realistic here: Although it wouldn’t be overly surprising if Today struggles in the ratings during 2019, the chances of it being axed entirely are probably about the same as 60 Minutes or A Current Affair being cancelled in the foreseeable future: Very slim to none.
Unless the revived Dancing With The Stars somehow manages to receive disastrous ratings at or below The Biggest Loser: Transformed-levels, it should remain on the main channel for the duration of the series but not be renewed for another one. Same deal with Australia’s Got Talent.
I agree that Pointless will probably be cancelled if the ratings continue to struggle. But personally I hope neither of those game shows are revived. There’s been at least a couple of failed attempts to “reinvent the Wheel” and as for DOND, I certainly can’t imagine 30 minutes of “guess which briefcase contains the most money” being a huge ratings puller at 6pm against the news!
Nine could well win 2019 by a fraction thanks to State of origin, NRL, Married at First Sight, The Ashes, Cricket World Cup, The Block. Nine Perth will improve prime time shares by 4.5% thanks to Origin at Optus Stadium and will eventually double Masterchef ratings on that night. With the We Are the One slogan, I hope that Nine will win the ratings year.
Last time Nine won ratings year was back in 2006 thanks to AFL, Commonwealth Games, and the NRL, State of Origin. IIRC how many weeks did Nine win back in 2006?
I can see this being repeated in a couple of weeks sadly, even with I’m A Celebrity
(This was from the first Sunday night at the Aus Open earlier this year. For the record, Seven’s main channel was 33% and Nine’s was over 20% with cricket. 7mate had the other feed of the Aus Open. 10 didn’t have BBL this night)
I think Nine will finally win a ratings year in 2019. Australian Open and Married at First Sight will give the network a flying start. The Block and Seachange will be a huge ratings combo, while Love Island, Lego Masters and Australian Ninja Warrior should do OK. Then there is State of Origin and The Ashes on 9Gem.
Ten will rely on its usual suspects (I’m a Celebrity, MasterChef, HYBPA, Australian Survivor, Gogglebox, The Bachelor/ette) to prop up its ratings, although I sense further declines for The Bachelor/ette. Changing Rooms and Dancing with the Stars won’t set the ratings on fire.
ABC will dominate news and current affairs in the first half of the year with NSW state election and Federal election.
Seven will suffer a big ratings decline next year. I reckon the real reason the network schedules two seasons of My Kitchen Rules for 2019 is that it is worried about the onslaught from Married at First Sight. If the main season flops, there is an Q4 version to back up. House Rules will continue to drop while Instant Hotel, Australia’s Got Talent and Zumbo’s Just Desserts will struggle. The first two weeks of the AFL finals could even suffer a rare loss to the Ashes (late start next year due to Cricket World Cup) especially if Australia can turn around its poor form quickly with the return of Steve Smith, Cameron Bancroft and David Warner.
Tuesday January 1
Hopman Cup on Nine (USA v Switzerland, specifically Serena Williams v Roger Federer in mixed doubles) will generate good late night ratings, but the BBL Melbourne derby will dominate early evening.
BBL: Heat v Sixers session 1: 0.28m, session 2: 0.36m
BBL: Stars v Renegades session 1: 0.59m, session 2 0.65m
Hopman Cup night session 0.34m
Ambulance Australia rpt 0.35m
Movie: Pretty Woman rpt 0.29m
Thursday January 3
Australia v India, fourth test
session 1: 0.44m, session 2: 0.53m, session 3: 0.59m
BBL: Renegades v Strikers session 1: 0.51m, session 2: 0.52m
Great Getaways 0.39m (except Perth)
Travel Guides rpt 0.35m
Movie: The Hangover rpt 0.28m (except Perth)
Territory Cops rpt 0.25m / 0.24m
Movie: Now You See Me 2 rpt 0.23m
Out of curiosity, which do you think provides the best ‘leg up’ for Q1 programming?
-Summer of cricket (now on Seven)
-Summer of tennis (now on Nine)
NB/ Also consider: cricket has 5 tests over a couple of months, each for max 5 afternoons with 1 including prime time; plus BBL prime time on many nights. Tennis has prime time tournaments in January with a grand slam of 14 consecutive prime times incl final on night before Q1 traditionally starts.
I’m intrigued as the Aus Open was said by Seven to be the best platform and I guess MKR’s ratings helped show that to an extent and Nine this year also admitted that. But to me cricket, with its bigger broadcast hours in total could be argued to be more premium.
Saturday January 5
Australia v India: fourth test
session 1: 0.42m, session 2: 0.53m, session 3: 0.64m
Movie: Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory rpt 0.45m
Movie: We Bought a Zoo rpt 0.34m
Monday January 7
Australia v India: fourth test 0.34m
BBL: Renegades v Hurricanes 0.54m / 0.58m
Fast 4 tennis (Nine / 9Gem) 0.36m
Ambulance Australia rpt 0.26m
Movie: Muriel’s Wedding rpt 0.27m
Sunday January 13
It will be a very competitive night with the new season of I’m a Celebrity against live BBL. Seven should win the night especially with the late BBL game in Perth.
I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here season premiere - opening night 1.13m, welcome to the jungle 1.04m
BBL: Renegades v Heat session 1: 0.54m, session 2: 0.59m
BBL: Scorchers v Sixers session 1: 0.57m, session 2: 0.43m
60 Minutes 0.55m
Blue Planet II rpt 0.48m
Movie: Firewall rpt 0.28m
