2018 Ratings Predictions

Sunday September 23
The Block 1.34m
60 Minutes 0.65m

Sunday Night 0.71m
The Story of the Royals part 1 (premiere) 0.53m

Movie: Happy Feet rpt 0.35m
When Corden Met McCartney 0.28m

Monday September 24
Tonight’s Brownlow Medal count should get huge ratings, especially if there is a close finish in the final few rounds of home and away season.

Brownlow Medal red carpet 0.57m (Melbourne and Adelaide) + 0.14m (7mate Sydney, Brisbane and Perth)
Brownlow Medal count 0.97m (Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth) + 80,000 (7mate Sydney and Brisbane)
Highway Patrol 0.33m / 0.36m (Sydney and Brisbane)
Movie: Captain Phillips rpt 0.35m (Sydney, Brisbane and Perth)

The Block 1.13m
Doctor Doctor 0.45m (Sydney and Brisbane)

Australian Survivor 0.62m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.71m

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24 Sep 2018
The AFL Brownlow Medal will draw a big win to Channel Seven.
Brownlow Medal - 558k (Melb, Ade) + 145k (7mate - SYD, BNE and Per).
The count - 1 million (Melbourne, Adelaide And perth) + 84000 (7mate Sydney and BNE)
The Block - 1.04m
Australian Survivor - 622k
HYBPA - 705k

I don’t understand why the Brownlow Medal draws such huge crowds, the count is boring as all get out. Like of course I’ll tune-in parts and always try to see the winner and yes when it’s close, remaining rounds (30min or more) can be like a game, edge of your seat. But it’s like Seven get a default audience glued annually. I mean how many watch Dally M on Fox?

Tuesday September 25
The Block 0.96m
True Story with Hamish and Andy new 0.68m
True Story with Hamish and Andy rpt 0.54m
Footy Classified 0.21m (Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth)

Take Me Out 0.52m
800 Words 0.46m

Australian Survivor 0.66m
Bull 0.31m / 0.29m

Wednesday September 26
The Block 0.91m
Bite Club 0.45m

Highway Patrol 0.43m (not shown in Adelaide)
Motorbike Cops 0.54m
9-1-1 0.46m
Talking Footy 0.22m (Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth)

The Bachelor 0.84m
Playing for Keeps 0.54m
Movie: The Switch premiere 0.26m

Highway Patrol 0.43m (not shown in Adelaide or Perth)

Thursday September 27
Could tonight be the last time we see both AFL and NRL Footy Shows? Regardless I think both Grand Final shows will do well. Having lost to The Front Bar in Melbourne on almost every week they went head to head, the AFL Footy Show (with a one hour head start) will win tonight and Nine should win the night overall as well. In Melbourne, Footy Show will get 330,000 and The Front Bar 290,000.

Home and Away triple episodes 0.56m
The Front Bar grand final special 0.41m (Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth) + 31,000 (7mate Sydney and Brisbane)
Movie: The Shawshank Redemption rpt 0.33m (Seven + 7mate)

The Footy Show grand final edition 0.55m

The Bachelor 0.71m
Gogglebox 0.65m

I personally think it’d be fair to say that last night’s Grand Final editions of The Footy Show were the last ever if Gogglebox outrated it in all metro markets.

Friday September 28
Better Homes and Gardens 0.62m
Movie: Captain America: The First Avenger rpt 0.43m

The Living Room 0.42m

1 Like

Saturday September 29
Last year, the AFL Grand Final had an average five-city audience of 2.68 million (1.277 million in Melbourne) with Richmond playing. This year another team with a large following, Collingwood, will be playing, but I think the Melbourne will struggle to reach 1 million as there is little excitement for today’s decider. The Perth audience however will be huge.
Seven will dominate day and night with the women’s Twenty20 cricket pulling a decent audience.

AFL Grand Final pre match entertainment 0.87m
AFL Grand Final on the ground 1.03m
AFL Grand Final: West Coast v Collingwood 2.3m
(Sydney 250,000, Melbourne 1,050,000, Brisbane 260,000, Adelaide 280,000, Perth 460,000)
AFL Grand Final post-match presentation 2.1m
Seven News 1.42m
AFL Grand Final post-match concert 0.24m (7mate)
Women’s Twenty20 cricket: Australia v New Zealand game 1 0.54m (Seven) + 30,000 (7mate Perth)

Riverfire 2018 0.34m (Brisbane)
Movie: Back to the Future rpt 0.41m
Movie: The Expendables rpt 0.28m

29 September 2018
It will be a Super Saturday of Sport on Seven thanks to AFL, Horse Racing and Cricket. WOWEE!
Weekend Sunrise: 0.33m
AFL Game Day: 0.51m
AFL Grand Final Pre-match entertainment: 0.74m
AFL Grand Final on the ground: 1.2m
AFL Grand Final: West Coast v Collingwood: 2.67m (1.25m in Melbourne, 315k in Adelaide, 470k in Perth, 325k in Sydney, 310k in Brisbane)
AFL Grand FInal: Presentations: 2.47m
Seven News: 1.66m
AFL Grand Final Post match concert: 0.25m (7mate)
Women’s T20 game - Australia v NZ: 0.44m on Seven (including 25k in Perth).
Horse Racing on 7two: 0.1m

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AFL Grand Final Presentations: 2.8m

AFL Grand Final: 2.75m

T20 Int’l Womens: 875k

With the presence of 9Now live streaming to take a few viewers away from Nine’s terrestrial broadcasts (& Pay TV retransmissions of said services) of the match, no Queensland team and no “underdog” team the casual viewer can really get behind (even last year the Cowboys could’ve be seen as one), I’d be willing to predict that tomorrow night’s audience figures for the 2018 NRL Grand Final is going to be considerably down on previous years. I’d even go as far as saying that the Sydney figures might only be around the 850k-ish mark which of course wouldn’t be bad for this day and age by any means, but nowhere near the 1 million+ ratings we’ve seen for recent Grand Finals like 2014 and 2016.

Roosters v Storm…arguably this is going to be seen as “elitist” and a Grand Final that’s “not for the true fan of the game” given that the teams playing are based in two regions (inner-city Sydney and Melbourne) which probably couldn’t care less about rugby league and seem to be despised outside of their respective fan bases, while quite a significant chunk of those who do follow the game of rugby league live in more “working class” locations such as Western Sydney & Brisbane + regional NSW/Queensland.

Strewth! Imagine if Storm weren’t playing to then, boosting Melbourne’s audience!

Sunday September 30
Based on the comments by SydneyCityTV and Chuck in the NRL thread, this could be the lowest rating NRL Grand Final since OzTAM ratings began in 2001. While Nine will still win the night comfortably, the metro audience may struggle to hit 2 million.
NRL Grand Final pre-match entertainment 1.12m
NRL Grand Final: Sydney Roosters v Melbourne 2.02m
(Sydney 830,000, Melbourne 510,000, Brisbane 520,000, Adelaide 70,000, Perth 90,000)
NRL Grand Final post-match presentations 1.23m

Sunday Night 0.61m
The Story of the Royals part 2 0.42m

The Graham Norton Show season premiere 0.29m
Movie: The Notebook rpt 0.25m

1 Like

30 Sep 2018
Channel Nine will storm home with a win thanks to NRLGF.
Sunday NRL Footy Show - 0.22m
WOmen’s NRLGF - 456k (including on 9gem)
Intrust Super Championship - 534k (incluiding on 9Gem)
NRL GF Entertainment - 1.02m
NRL GF: Sydney v Melbourne - 2.38m
NRL GF Post Match Presentations - 1.66m

My prediction for the metropolitan ratings of the 2018 NRL Grand Final? 1.94 million (Sydney 830k, Melbourne 450k, Brisbane 500k, Adelaide 70k, Perth 90k)

Even though the Storm are playing and many locals (especially Collingwood fans :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:) will likely want something to take their minds off losing the AFL Grand Final to Perth yesterday, I just can’t see half a million viewers in Melbourne watching the NRL Grand Final this year. Speaking of Perth, I’d imagine the ratings in that market for the NRL Grand Final will also likely be down on last year as the city naturally gets swept into the excitement of “Eagle Fever”.

This will be the first time for many years that daylight saving time hasn’t been in effect for the NRL GF which may have an effect especially in Queensland where the coverage starts one hour later and is fully in prime time.

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I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t at least hit 2m, probably 2.1m or so I’ll say. Melbourne will be well down, Sydney should be up a bit.

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Monday

The Block: 1m

(Seven weak lead-in with re-run of Highway Patrol).

But the heavily promoted including during AFL GF “Working Class Boy” doco/movie FTA premiere will rate well, for a 2hr+ program.

Working Class Boy: 875k