2016 Ratings Predictions

I think it could be the opposite actually. The Sydney team is equivalent to the Western Bulldogs. QLD love NRL. I don’t think it will matter if no QLD team is playing. I could be wrong, as I was yesterday with the AFL figures which were a lot lower than I expected, but I just think QLD is like Adelaide and Perth where it is a routine to watch the game.

Looking back at it and QLD had plenty of viewers when two Sydney teams featured in a Grand Final. I am going to say 2.9

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I agree. The Cronulla Sharks are looking to win their first ever Grand Final in the 50 year history of the club and that has generated plenty of interest in the Sydney media (Nine News Sydney’s coverage of the GF lead-up has been extremely black, white and sky blue) over the past week or so.

Over 900k Sydneysiders still watched last year’s NRL Grand Final even though it was an all Queensland derby, so I think it would be quite reasonable for Nine to expect over a million in Sydney this year.

Even though I’d naturally expect the Brisbane ratings to be down on last year’s all Queensland Derby, I think the fact that the Melbourne Storm have a few Queensland State of Origin players in their side (plus the fact that the Storm simply aren’t a Sydney/NSW team!) should still get plenty of Brisbane viewers watching the match.

I don’t know, it was just me looking at everything holistically.

I mean with non-existant ratings in Adelaide & Perth + no QLD team, I wouldn’t expect anything above 2.5m?

In regards to the AFL Grand Final, I also predicted around 3.5m for the game, although the 3m it got is still ridiculous (last seen in 2006) :open_mouth:

Not sure. I am no expert. But I believe there have been great figures in the past and again I think the whole no Queensland team is irrelevant. Did figures affect Perth or Adelaide without a team? No. The game tonight was incredible. Very close. Nearly came down to the last play. So I think it will receive some strong figures and be very close to the AFL figure. I could be wrong though. We will see tomorrow. You also need to remember QLD is a bigger market than Perth and Adelaide so it nearly equal ground. I am still thinking over the 2.5 mill mark at the very least. If SOO gets 2.9 mill on the odd occasion then I would expect the same for a Grand Final.

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For having no team, Perth has a fairly healthy NRL audience

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Just did some quick calculations, to see if NRL GF could break a record & get it’s first 3m (metro)…

It looks near impossible unfortunately.

For presentations, assuming Melbourne dropped to ~550k, Adelaide held on ~75k & Perth ~100k…

Youd need like 1.5m in Sydney & 800k in Brisbane?

Adelaide didnt even get to see the presentations.

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Didn’t WA also have to watch on 9Gem!?

It was a late programming change to show last week’s episode of Doctor Doctor due to the recent storm that caused the statewide blackout.

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NRL grand final 2.5mill.

It was very annoying…

It’s expected to be adjusted to 2.65m making it the largest NRL Grand Final audience ever

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Monday October 3
Two new Australian dramas start tonight. Their ratings will much depend on their respective lead-in. I think one will win overnight but the other in timeshifting.

The Block 1.2m
Hyde & Seek series premiere 0.85m
Australian Crime Stories series premiere 0.45m

The X Factor season premiere 1.06m
The Secret Daughter series premiere 0.76m

Australian Survivor 0.56m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.62m

I think Survivor will be down considering Ten’s shocking weekend shares.

The X Factor 800k
Secret Daughter 1.0

The Block 1.35
Hyde and Seek 900k

Australian Survivor 550k
Have you been Paying Attention? 600k

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[I feel like Seven have had the much better promotion].

Monday the 3rd of October 2016

Very competitive night, will be close between Seven & Nine (I think multi-channels will give Seven the win)…

The X Factor (premiere): 1.25m

The Secret Daughter (premiere): 1m

The Block: 975k

Hyde & Seek: 925k

(All four above programs will shift up and down week-to-week & with consolidated, I reckon).

HYBPA: 750k

Survivor: 650k

Monday 3rd October

The Block-1.23m
Hyde & Seek (series premiere)-975k

The X Factor (season premiere)-950k
The Secret Daughter (series premiere)-875k

Australian Survivor-595k
Have You Been Paying Attention?-645k

Tuesday October 4
It should be another close night with Nine narrowly on top.

The Block 0.95m
Unreal Estate 0.67m
Million Dollar Movers 0.45m

The X Factor 0.87m
800 Words 0.61m / 0.58m (midseason finale)

Australian Survivor 0.71m
Todd Sampson’s Body Hack premiere 0.65m

I have a feeling the Todd Sampson thing will be a moderate success - 750k

Tuesday 4th October

The Block-935k
Unreal Estate-650k

The X Factor-860k
800 Words- 675k /625k

Australian Survivor-700k
Todd Sampson’s Body Hack (premiere)-645k

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Tuesday the 4th of October 2016

Very competitive night. I think Seven will go up, Nine will go down & Ten will be steady. I do have a feeling X Factor won’t be a 1m+ show now (for the first time)…

•X Factor: 975k
•The Block: 875k
•800 Words (season finale): 750k
•Survivor: 700k
•Body Hack: 600k

The other shows on Ch 9 will do poor.